Around the Diamond

Draft Advice -- Notes from the AL West

by Howard Bender

Los Angeles Angels

Once again, the Angels are the team to beat in the weak AL West.  Even when they lose integral pieces of their past success (Francisco Rodriguez, Garrett Anderson and even Mark Teixeira), they still find a way to maintain their balance.  New imports, Bobby Abreu and Brian Fuentes, fill the holes, and from a fantasy standpoint, drafting Angels seems like a pretty wise move.

The infield looks the same, obviously with one notable change as 2008 mid-season acquisition, Teixeira, bolted for the Yankees.  But that just may not be too bad as it finally opens the door for Kendry Morales.  His minor league totals show a consistently high average with mid-level power.  He just never got the chance with guys like Casey Kotchman (traded to the Braves) and the versatile Rob Quinlan in his way.  I think this could be the year he busts out, hopefully expecting around 20 HR with a .310 average.

Chone Figgins remains a solid speed option at third, Erick Aybar and Maicier Izturis will handle the duties at short, while the always frail Howie Kendrick stays on at second base.  The only one that I would consider drafting right now is Figgins.  I normally like a big bat at the hot corner, but if you have a need for speed, Figgy can help.

The sleeper pick to look out for is once again Brandon Wood.  Now I know you've heard that over and over, but the kid hit .291 with 31 HR in Triple-A last year and that can't be ignored.  He needs the opportunity.  It may be tough for him since everyone in the current scheme is better defensively, but it's only a matter of time.  Try him out as a late round pick.

The outfield looks pretty solid as Abreu's arrival pushes Gary Matthews Jr. to the bench.  Torii Hunter stays in center with the always dangerous Vladimir Guerrero in right.  Now sure, this would have been an insane trio 8 years ago, but it still makes up a solid 3-4-5 in the lineup.  Draft any of them with confidence.

The pitching staff looks just the same, and I think you can be happy drafting any of them.  Jered Weaver seems to be making small improvements here and there, so this could be the year he puts it all together.  You won't see a duplicate season for Joe Saunders, but the lefty should still be a safe bet.  I expect a big rebound for John Lackey and Ervin Santana seems to have finally got it.  Both are staff ace material.

The bullpen remains solid with Fuentes coming over from the Rockies to replace K-Rod.  I know he lost his job for a little while to Manny Corpas, but the switch away from Coors Field should do wonders for him.  But just in case, you may want to stash Jose Arredondo on your bench for insurance.

Oakland A's

The boys from the east bay could be a tough lot to choose from for your fantasy needs.  Their rotation is pretty green, their bullpen is even greener, and their position players are a hodge-podge of over-the-hill vets, underperformers and unproven rooks.  But don't turn away just yet.  There might be a gem or two to find in them thar hills.

The infield is definitely a tough call for fantasy leaguers.  Favorite son, Jason Giambi returns, but these days his .250 average (at best) can put a real hurting on your squad.  He also might find it tough to reach that 30 HR plateau as he no longer has that luxurious short porch in right field..  Mark Ellis is a low end option at second, Bobby Crosby is being pushed out, and Eric Chavez' best days are long behind him.  There's still an outside chance that free agent Orlando Cabrera could replace Crosby, but I don't see him upgrading this offense that much.

The OF/DH spots look a little more promising.  New import Matt Holliday was a fantasy stud in Colorado, and while I see his overall numbers dropping in Oakland (especially the SBs), he'll still be a solid fantasy contributor.  There's also a very high probability that he'll be dealt away mid-season, so that should definitely help his long term value.

The rest of the spots, along with DH duties, are still somewhat up for grabs.  The top 5 in contention are strikeout machine Jack Cust, Ryan Sweeney, Rajai Davis, Travis Buck and Daric Barton.  Odds are the A's will keep Cust's all or nothing bat in th elineup so he already has a bead on right field and DHing.  Barton can spell Giambi at first and, if he finally puts it together, might steal some DH work as well.  That basically leaves Sweeney, Davis and Buck vying for center field and spot starts in right.  My guess is Sweeney wins the job, but I'd love to see Davis get the call.  He has amazing speed and could blossom into the leadoff hitter Oakland so desperately needs.  He had 29 SB last season as a bench guy, stole 40+ in 5 of the last 6 years between the minors and majors, and traditionally has a nice high OBP.

The rotation for the A's might be where you'll find some more late round sleepers.  Justin Duchscherer will be the top starter, but has dealt with hip problems the past two years.  He's solid, but an injury risk.  But he's also the only guy that probably won't have to compete for a job this spring.  Sean Gallagher, Dallas Braden, Dana Eveland and Gio Gonzalez will probably end up rounding out the rotation since the rest of the guys vying for a spot need more minor league seasoning.  While I'm actually a fan of all four, the one I'll be watching closest is Gonzalez.  If he can solve his control issues and cut down on the walks, he's going to be impressive.  In his last 3 seasons, he's averaged more than a strikeout per inning.

The bullpen is another tough spot for fantasy owners.  With Huston Street gone, closing duties will fall on both Joey Devine and Brad Ziegler.  Devine came over from the Braves last year and has been tabbed a top closer for the future.  But Ziegler scorelles inning streak last seasonhas definitely earned manager Bob Geren's trust and appears to be the front runner for now.  I think they'll split early on, but look for Devine to take over by mid-season.

Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are another of those bad teams that still boast some decent fantasy potential.  The have some decent veterans to help, some good young talent, and a few pitchers that should, if they live up to their billing, throw you some good numbers.  There's nothing you should be going crazy for, but some ok fantasy value nonetheless.

The infield looks pretty similar, so don't expect too many surprises.  First base is a mess with Russell Branyan, Chris Shelton and maybe Bryan LaHair.  They are all last resorts at best.  Jose Lopez gives you good power at second, Yuniesky Betancourt is serviceable for cheap at short, and Adrian Beltre is in another contract year.  Just don't expect the kind of numbers he put up in '04, the last time he was playing for a new deal.  I like Jeff Clement at DH and he could also steal some time from Kenjii Johijima behind the dish.

The outfield got a little makeover with the return of Ken Griffey Jr. and the trade for Franklin Gutierrez with Cleveland.  Junior still has some good pop left, but always remains an injury risk.  Gutierrez is a mid-level guy with a bit of speed, but only late round material.  Ichiro remains a fixture in right field and shoudl be considered as dangerous as always.  Keep an eye on Wladimir Balentien who debuted last year and has some good potential.

Th erotation is anchored again by Felix Hernandez and rebound candidate Erik Bedard.  Unfortunately, King Felix still hasn't lived up to the hype these past 3 years, so don't go ranking him too high.  Let someone else overpay.   Bedard's potential breakout last year was hampered by shoulder issues but, now fully healthy, can definitely help you in strikeouts without screwing up your ratios.  He should drop in most drafts between his injuries and Seatlle's ineptitude, so he could be a nice steal. 

You know what you're getting in guys like Carlos Silva and Jarrod Washburn, but 5th starter candidate Brandon Morrow could be huge.  He's average more than a strikeout per inning but has never thrown more than 65 innings in a season.  Think Joba Chamberlain.  Take caution though.  Too many innings could cause some shoulder problems and there's also talk of him staying in the bullpen to help close out games.  Probably a better fit for him considering just how weak that pen may be.

There are a few options for the 9th inning,but I don't recommend anone just yet.  Besides Morrow, there's been talk of Miguel Batista and even Mark Lowe.  I don't see either being successful in that role, so if Morrow lands in the rotation, give a look at Roy Corcoran.  I see him being the most consistent option.

Texas Rangers

Typical Rangers team again -- all stick and no arms.  For fantasy owners it's pretty obvious with the dimensions of that ballpark, so draft accordingly.  Focus on the hitters and leave the rotation alone.

Josh Hamilton leads the charge here, but don't go getting yourself too crazy.  The pressure will be on him to duplicate last year's success, and owners will probably be reaching for him.  Watch out for the bidding wars and don't go wasting a top draft choice.  There's no guarantee that he'll do it again, he's got a bit of an injury history, and there are plenty of other hard hitting outfielders out there.

Ian Kinsler has worked his way up to being the number one second baseman in fantasy and there's more than strong chance that he keeps it going and finishes this season 20-20.  Michael Young is solid, and although he moves over to third, you can and should still draft him at short. 

I'm not as high on Chris Davis as most people are, it seems.  He's got great power potential and dual position eligibility at the corners, but I think his average is going to suffer while he tries to deliver on the hype.  Think 25-30 dingers but a .260 average.  The guy I do like, mostly for long term keeper leagues, is shortstop Elvis Andrus.  His glove will always keep him in the lineup and he's got rock solid speed.  If his OBP in the minors is any kind of an indicator, he could find himself hitting leadoff for this power group.He's also being mentored by Omar Vizquel and we all know how invaluable that is.  Hank Blalock moves over to DH, and while I was a huge fan in his earlier years, the injuries have deterred me from even thinking about drafting him.

As for the outfield, along with Hamilton you've got some pretty decent talent.  Marlon Byrd should start in center, but with his lack of power, David Murphy could supplant him again and repeat on last year's success.  But the guy I really love is Nelson Cruz.  He's got tremendous power potential and showed it finally at the end of last year hitting .330 in 115 Ab with 7 HR, 26 RBI and 3 SB.  If given the opportunity, you should try to pick him up.

Out of any of the arms in Texas, the only one I like is new closer Frank Francisco.  His 83 Ks in just under 64 innings was huge and all the while keeping his ratios in check.  He'll easily outpitch C.J. Wilson, whom he replaced last year, so look to steal him in the later rounds.

In all honesty, I don't even think I need to discuss the starters.  You know what you're getting in guys like Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla.  Believe me, there are better options all over the major leagues.

For more fantasy advice and a look at my 2009 Player Rankings and position Tiers, check out what's going on over at RotoBuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thought or comments, you can email him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.