Around the Diamond

Draft Advice -- Notes from the AL Central

by Howard Bender

Minnesota Twins

While the Twins did nothing to improve in th eway of free agent imports, there's still a decent amount of fantasy usefullness to find.  1B Justin Morneau and closer Joe Nathan lead the way as fantasy studs, and C Joe Mauer still has decent value in the form of batting average.  His power and speed, in my opinion, don't rate with guys like McCann, Martin or Soto, but there are plenty worse for you to end up starting.  Just don't reach too high.

The outfield/DH cluster could be tough to pick from for your squad.  Last year's darling sleeper, Denard Span could be a nice pick again if he can outplay the always disappointing Delmon Young and Carlos Gomez, who dwindled away towards the end of last year.  Barring a trade, look for the three of them to rotate between center and left (and maybe DH) until someone starts to separate from the pack.  After that, you've got Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.  It could be difficult for any of these guys to rech 500 AB without some sort of player movement, whether it's a trade or a demotion to the minors.

As for the infield, I'm hard pressed to endorse any of them.  Maybe Alexi Casilla at a very thin second base, but he needs to show that he can put 2008's second half fade behind him.  The left side of the infield is troublesome, from a fantasy perspective, with Nick Punto at short and Brian Buscher at third.  You've got to be pretty desperate to add either of them to your lineup.  Now word out of Minnesota has Joe Crede coming to town, but while the increase in power is nice, you've now got a major back issue to worry about.

The rotation is where I think yo can find some fantasy gold.  Francisco Liriano has a ton of talent and could be a huge asset now that he's healthy.  Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey are more than solid fo rthe middle of your roation, and while Nick Blackburn may be a step down from those guys, he remains a decent option.  The fifth starter job looks like it's going to Glen Perkins, and while he has some decent upside, I'm not looking in his direction unless I've crossed off the majority of names off my depth charts.

Kansas City Royals

Let the small market whining begin...or will it?  Last year, the Royals started out as one of the hottest teams, and while they were unable to sustain it, their overall performance was solid as they improved in wins for the third straight season.  They also had some fantasy gems in there, including top value pick at closer, Joakim Soria (appropriately nicknamed "The Mexecutioner") and 2nd half stud SS Mike Aviles.  Both players should go relatively higher in most drafts, although I'm really only sold on Soria.  Aviles, who's actually pushing 30, is going to find it tough to maintain that .834 OPS.  He never came close to that number in the minors which indicates to me that those expecting a repeat are headed for disappointment. 

As for some of the others, let's stay in the infield right now.  While he doesn't match up too well against a lot of the power at the hot corner, Alex Gordon will probably be hunted by those still awaiting his breakout.  He was having a fairly decent season last year until a hip flexor injury put him on the shelf.  But he did make it back in September, so health doesn't seem to be an issue coming into this year.  The Royals also brought in some middle of the lineup protection when they acquired 1B Mike Jacobs.  He's got 30 HR potential but still has serious batting average issues.  He's also moving to the AL, so he may start off slow while making adjustments.  Jacobs' presence pushes Billy Butler to DH and he could be worth a late round flyer.  Second base is not looking so good as there's now talk of Mark Teahen moving there to platoon with utility-man Alberto Collaspo. To me, neither is worth a look without a full time gig.

Teahen's potential move to the infield is a direct result of the Royals other big offseason acquisition, Coco Crisp.  I hear that they're hoping to have him hit leadoff which could make some owners jump at the chance of picking him up.  But history is not on his side.  Both the Indians and the Red Sox tried him out there, but his .311 OBP over the last 3 years shows thathe's better off hitting in the 8 or 9 hole.  Expect David DeJesus to resume leadoff duties by mid-May.  Jose Guillen rounds out the outfield but you know the injury risks ahead.

As for pitching, the only guys that seem worth a look are Zack Greinke and Gil Meche.  Neither will blow your doors off, but there's definitely potential.  Just look at Greinke's 2.32 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over his last 10 starts in 2008.  The rest of the rotation ranges from mediocre to poor, so steer clear.

Chicago White Sox

While I don't see the South Siders winning a pennant this year, they definitely have some solid fantasy talent that can help lead you to a championship.  My favorite of the group is last year's sensation Alexei Ramirez.  The Cuban import played a mean second base least year while posting 21 HR and 13 SB in just 480 AB.  This year he's moving over to shortstop which only increases his fantasy appeal with multi-position eligibility and I think a full season will help him reach the coveted 20-20 elite...so long as he doesn't piss off Ozzie Guillen and end up in the doghouse.  Ozzie can definitely be troublesome, and a little nuts, at times.

Another bright young star who broke out last year was OF Carlos Quentin.  I'm sure the D-Backs are still kicking themselves for giving up on him so quickly.  His 36 HR and 100 RBI were a huge surprise for a lot of people.  I definitely see him hovering around similar totals this year.

The rest of the lot -- Jermaine Dye, Paul Konerko, Jim Thome, and A.J. Pierzynski -- may be getting up in age, but are all still decent middleto late round choices at their positions.  Their overall production may be slipping a bit in comparison to their numbers in previous seasons, but the power is still a step above the league average -- based on their positions, that is.  I actually expect a bit of a rebound for Konerko, so long as his back woes are behind him (get it?  back woes?  behind him?  ok, sorry.).  But seriously, if people are sour on him enough, he could be a great late CI steal.

The pitching over here on the south side ain't so hot for us fantasy leaguers.  Bobby Jenks is a solid choice at closer, but the starting pitching is sketchy, at best.  First off, let's understand that the ballpark is one of the premier hitters' parks in the league.  For me, that's an immediate red flag when putting together a pitching staff.  That's not to say I won't touch any of them, but I'm wary of drafting them.  Enough to avoid most of them, but I actually like John Danks.  He's a powerful lefty with a deceptive delivery and could duplicate that 3.32 ERA he posted last year.  He had a bit of a second half swoon, but as a 3rd year starter in 2009, I see him putting it all together for the full year

The rest of the rotation is tough to trust.  Mark Buehrle may eat up a lot of innings, but his WHIP and the fact that he's already talking about retirement when his contract expires, concern me.  I also don't see Gavin Floyd duplicating last years' numbers, and if you're a sabermetric fan, he's got some numbers that dictate an increase in both WHIP and ERA.  Bartolo Colon is still a huge risk, and the 5th starte spot is between Lance Broadway and Clayton Richard.  I see Richard winning it, but you losing it if you're relying on him.

Cleveland Indians

For me, I don't see the Tribe having as much fantasy gold as they've had in previous years.  The obvious choice to draft from here is Grady Sizemore.  One of the best and most consistent outfielders, Sizemore has been a memenber of the coveted 20-20 club in each of the last 4 seasons and is definitely worth 1st round consideration.  You've also got a little consistency with SS Jhonny Peralta who can bang you 20 odd HR with a .270ish average.  He also turns the magical 27 this year if that's a selling point for you.

But after that, I don't think we're looking at a single sure-thing.  Will Travis Hafner ever hit again?  Will Victor Martinez rebound from injury and an enigmatic power outage?How much time will Ryan Garko really get at first with the constant need to rest V-Mart from behind the dish?  And with that, how many ABs will Kelly Shoppach actually get?  Sounds rough, right?  Wait...it keeps going

With unproven mid-level guys like Ben Francisco and Shin Soo Choo slated for the corner outfield spots, where will heralded rookie Matt LaPorta fit in?  How many AB will David Dellucci steal from all of them?  That's just too many questions and not enough answers yet.  We'll know more as Spring Training moves forward, but here's my early speculation:

V-Mart will improve offensively but need more time at 1st, thus screwing Garko in the beginning.  But once we see that Hafner is toast, some more DH opportunities will open up.  Choo could stay in right all year, but Francisco will probably give way to Dellucci for a platoon.  They both could find themselves on the bench if LaPorta, who will start the year in Triple-A, gets hot...which he will.  My sleeper pick just might be 3B Mark DeRosa.  His multi-position eligibility is huge, but we need to see how he hits AL pitching on a regular basis.

The pitching in Cleveland is also a bit sketchy for my liking.  While Cliff Lee won't duplicate last year's amazing success, I don't see the dropoff being that dramatic.  I'd still draft him, but only if the price is right.  Don't go paying for 2008 totals. 

After that, it's rough.  Fausto Carmona has some major changes to make after last year's horiffic season, Anthony Reyes could be good, but is no more than a late round option, Carl Pavano...?  No way.  Don't do it.  Fantasy suicide, my friends.  And then the 5th spot is up for grabs still.  I'd love to see Adam Miller stay healthy and steal it, but Jeremy Sowers and Zach Jackson appear to be the front runners.

The Tribe brought in Kerry Wood to close out games this year, and while he was quite successful last season, you know there's a big injury risk.  If you draft him, make sure you also add Jensen Lewis as insurance.  I see him as the immediate replacement if/when Wood goes down.

Detroit Tigers

The big move for the Tigers this offseason was shuffling things up to improve their defense.  This doesn't do much for us fantasy folk, but it could finally help the pitching staff get back to their '06 success.  Hitting wise, they look pretty similar.

You've still got triple crown threat Miguel Cabrera over at first where his defense causes less damage.  But remember, he still qualifies over at the hot corner which is where you'll want to draft him.  Curtis Granderson stays in center and is still a potential 20-20 candidate who could steal even more if he can stay healthy.  Magglio Ordonez remains a solid option, and now Carlos Guillen adds outfield eligibility to his resume with a move to left.

The infield, on the other hand, is pretty light hitting.  Placido Polanco is a veteran .300 hitter, but doesn't really contribute much elsewhere.  Brandon Inge at third and Adam Everett at short may mean slick fielding, but could very well be the lightest hitting left side in the league.  New import Gerald Laird means a solid veteran presence behind the dish, but imagine what his numbers in Comerica are going to look like after being nothing but average in Arlington.

The pitching is loaded with questions too.  Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman and even Nate Robertson were once a solid starting three.  The question is whether or not they can regain the levels they were at 2 years ago.  The improved defense helps, but can't do it alone.  I see Verlander making the improvements, but the other two give me pause.  For me, the sleeper of the staff is going to be Edwin Jackson.  Moving the expendable Matt Joyce for the big righty is going to pay major dividends.  He's gradually increased his innings pitched and looks to top 200 this season.  He's shown steady improvement each season, and could seriously bring down that WHIP and ERA as he steps in for his 3rd full season.

The Tigers brought in Brandon Lyon to compete with Fernando Rodney in the bullpen, and while manager Jim Leyland has sadi the competition is open, I see the edge going to Lyon.  He's had the closer's job before in Arizona and should perform well enough to start the season with the job.  Just be careful, because Rodney and Joel Zumaya will be lurking.

Thanks for your patience.  Now that the issues on the site have been fixed, expect to see the rest of the league notes more frequently this week.

For a look at my 2009 Player Rankings and Position Tiers, check out Rotobuzz.com

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thought or comments, you can email him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com