Around the Diamond

Draft Advice -- Notes from the AL East

by Howard Bender

New York Yankees

As much as I love my Yankees, it is imperative that I remain objective when it comes to fantasy.  One of the cardinal sins in this game is to load up on too many players from one team, let alone, your hometown squad.  So with that said, I'll start with the fact that drafting any of the Yankees outfielders is going to be a fairly substantial risk.  With the addition of Mark Teixeira, Nick Swisher now finds himself competing for at bats with Xavier Nady, Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, Melky Cabrera/Brett Gardner and even Jorge Posada on days he doesn't catch.  That's 6 or 7 guys competing for 4 slots between the outfield and DH.  When it comes to draft day, my priority (as it should be yours) is to target every day guys...guys who post a minimum of 500 AB.  Barring injury or a super breakout season, I have a hard time seeing any of these guys doing so.  Maybe Damon, but his health is always an issue. 

As for the infield, draft any one of them with confidence.  A-Rod will shake the effects of this steroids scandal and put up his usual monster numbers, Derek Jeter and Robinson Cano should rebound from down years, and Tex is going to fall in love with that short porch in right.  Each one should contribute more than quality fantasy numbers.  Posada is an injury risk, so proceed with caution.

As for the rotation, it's hard not to like.  We all know the potential injury risks for C.C. Sabathia (crazy innings pitched over the last 2 years) and A.J. Burnett (injury prone for ntire career), but if you have the opportunity to grab one of them, don't be a fool and miss out.  Chien-Ming Wang and Andy Pettitte should post decent numbers (nothing mind-blowing, but good middle of the rotation stats), and Joba Chamberlain should have fantastic Ks.  I still think Joba should be in the bullpen, as do many others, so be cautious of a potential move when drafting.  Phillip Hughes is again my dark horse.  He's got great talent but has succumbed to the pressure of the bigs these past 2 seasons.  As a 5th starter, he might find it a little easier.  And if he can transfer what he just did inthe Arizona Fall League, he could be a great late round steal.  Even at the age of 39, Mariano Rivera in the bullpen...'nuff said.

Boston Red Sox

The Sox are pretty much bringing back the same squad they finished with last year.  So from a fantasy perspective, there aren't too many significant changes...on the surface.  But there are definitely things to watch.  First is Dustin Pedroia.  He had a phenomenal breakout season and I can't take anything away from that.  However, if you're expecting an improvement, or even the same totals as 2008, you're in for some trouble.  There is nothing in his numbers, both major or minor league, that indicates this type of power.  I see last season's totals as more of an abberation than a potential norm.  He'll always hit for a high average, but 10-12 HR is more where he should hover.  I feel the same way about Kevin Youkilis, so watch your bidding.  Another to keep your eye on is David Ortiz.  He looks to be headed down the same path as Travis Hafner.  I do, however, love Jason Bay and feel that he is going to continue to thrive.  A full year out of Pittsburgh is going to do amazing things for him.  My last position player thought goes to CF Jacoby Ellsbury.  It's not that I think he's going to be a total bomb, it's that I just think you need to be careful...here's why: check out #7.

The Boston staff is solid.  No question.  You know what you're getting from the top 3 in the rotation.  Josh Beckett has great stuff but an injury prone tag, Dice-K has great strikeout numbers but an issue with walks which makes his WHIP a little higher than you'd like (which could also translate to an increased ERA), and Jon Lester is a strong up and comer, a great feel good story, and should find a way to improve on last year's totals...just be sure to watch him as his innings pitched totals increase.  On the back end, there's Tim Wakefield and new imports John Smoltz and Brad Penny.  I have a feeling the latter two will take the remaining rotation spots pushing Wake to the pen and spot starter duties.  Just don't invest too heavily in either guy as they make the move to the tough hitting American League.  Jonathan Papelbon out of the pen is a no-brainer.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are another team that didn't make too many offseason adjustments.  And why should they?  If it ain't broke, don't fix it!  I think almost all of the position players are safe bets, depending on what your team needs.  I expect Carl Crawford to rebound and have a monster year, Evan Longoria is only going to get better, and B.J. Upton, once fully recovered from shoulder surgery, should bounce back to being a solid 15-40 guy.  The big addition, Pat Burrell, should be ok.  His batting average stinks and you might see a dropoff in power with the move to the AL and cavernous Tropicana field, but he shoul dstill be a decent #2 or 3 outfielder.  Matt Joyce, acquired in the Edwin Jackson trade, could be a nice sleeper if your league goes 5 or 6 outfielders.

The Rays rotation stayed virtually the same and I think Jamie Shields, Scott Kazmir, Matt Garza, and even Andy Sonnanstine should be decent selections.  The big change was moving Jackson to Detroit to make room for rookie phenom David Price.  The kid flashed his brilliance from the pen last year and this season he should be even better.  He's gonna cost you on draft day, but will definitely be worth it.,

The bullpen is the Achilles heel here.  Troy Percival is still Joe Maddon's favorite, but expect to see Grant Balfour and Dan Wheeler in the mix for saves.  These guys should only be used as a supplement to another proven closer or two.

Baltimore Orioles

The O's made a few interesting adjustments that could be good for fantasy owners...so long as you stick to the hitters and avoid the rotation.  Nick Markakis is definitely a player on the rise, but I'm not going to fluff him like so many web sites and magazines do.  He has amazing talent, but Aubrey Huff and Melvin Mora (voted most likely to be traded) aren't going to be the best protection for much longer and it's tough to be a quality 3-hole hitter when 4 and 5 aren't threatening.  I definitely like Adam Jones to continue his ascent, and while I think Felix Pie has the skills to succeed, the platoon he should find himself in with Ryan Freel, Luke Scott and Ty Wigginton could hamper his development.  There's plenty of hype for rookie backstop Matt Wieters, but be careful of getting into a bidding war or reaching to high.  It's tough to come in as a rookie to such an important position and not feel the pressures of everyone's expectations.  Also note thatthe talk is all about his hitting and an eventual need for a position change in the future due to the abuse catchers take in the bigs.  That doesn't speak too highly of his defensive skills, and if he starts slow, Greg Zaun could steal a lot, if not all, the playing time.

As for the rotation, I'd steer clear of it.  Jeremy Guthrie might be the only viable candidate, and even he could fall tragically short of his '08 totals.  The rest, I just have no confidence in and aren't even worth listing.  Yup...not even Mark Hendrickson.  The bullpen is also a bit of a touchy area.  George Sherrill is tabbed to be the closer, but the return of Chris Ray could muck things up.

Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays had a pretty quiet offseason as they made no significant moves to change.improve what they had.  Offensively, they look the same with the exception of Adam Lind supposedly starting in left and career journeyman Marco Scutaro handling the duties at short.  But the one thing their inactivity did allow was to make room for the much-heralded rookie Travis Snider.  The kid still needs time to mature and he definitely needs to cut down on his strikeouts, but he's another big bat that could help give Vernon Wells some much needed protection.  He and Lind should split time between left and DH.  There is one thing sthat could muddle things up for Snider and that's the recent addition of Kevin Millar.  The 37 year old signed a minor league contract, but with the Jays so heavy with the left handed bats, Millar could sneak in and still some 200 at bats.  As for the rest, Wells should be solid so long as you keep your expectations in check, Lyle Overbay is a steady option, and both Scott Rolen and Aaron Hill should be decent fillers for your fantasy squad.  Right fielder Alex Rios continues to be an enigma.  So much potential, so many expectations, yet he consistently fails to live up to the hype.  Last season he dropped in power, but almost doubled his SB total.  Look for him to find a happy middle ground somewhere between his '07 and '08 numbers.

Roy Halladay continues to anchor a very young rotation and should remain a top flight fantasy ace while up and comers Dustin McGowan and Jesse Litsch could find ways to improve.  It might be tough while facing the extremely strong hitting AL East, but each one has the ability to be a solid middle of the rotation guy.  They won't blow you away with strikeouts or crazy low ratios, but they should do enough that you'll be able to trust them in your lineup.  After that, I don't have too much confidence in any of the candidates for the last 2 rotation spots.  B.J. Ryan is a decent option when all the top closers are off the board, but just make sure you're able to pick up Jeremy Accardo as an insurance policy.

I'll be back every other day or so with the rest of the league.  Good luck and enjoy.

For more fantasy insights and advice, check out what's going on over at RotoBuzz.com.

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Howard Bender is a freelance fantasy sports writer and former champion in both rotisserie and head to head leagues.  For questions, thoughts, and comments you can write to him at Howard.Rotobuzz@yahoo.com.