Dear Fantasy Doctor X.

Fantasy Football: Week 4 Start/Sit

Week four of the 2008 Fantasy Football season's Start and Sit'em is upon us and we need to start planning to get yet another victory, or at least maximize our lineup's scoring.(By Chad Samuels)

Some decisions are tough to make and a second opinion to confirm your thoughts or even make you stop and reconsider things you might not have seen. Do not worry, the staff at Fantasy Football Maniaxs have you covered. As always, you are the final arbitrator of who you start and who you sit. As you make your decision check this out.

Who is the Start of the Week? The Sit of the week? Which notable RBs do we sit this week? Steven Jackson? Sure! Do we sit Jay Cutler because of his tough matchup this week?. Let's find out...

I attempt to select players that are not the obvious choices. It is why you have not seen start Adrian Peterson this week. I attempt to select players that are on the bubble or have a change in status. You will be more likely to see a big name in the sit section than in the start section. This is not necessarily that I do not like that player for the week just that I believe you will start him already

The one thing I would like to point out this week is the quarterback situation in Cleveland. Derek Anderson has the job for now. However, sources are saying that Kansas City had contacted Cleveland to trade for Quinn and Cleveland turned them down.

This information sends up a flare that the Browns' organization believes Brady will start some time this year. If that is not enough, I read today that Quinn is now taking more snaps with the first team. The Derek Anderson era looks like it could be ending very soon.

If you own Derek Anderson, you need to back him up with Brady Quinn if you haven’t already. For those of you who need a QB look to add him to your roster. QBs that enter the draft as a senior have a better track record of succeeding in the NFL. Quinn sitting a year and learning the offense helps too. Add in Kellen Winslow and Braylon Edwards, and he will have weapons to throw to. Jamal Lewis is dinged up right now, but should be good enough to help him succeed.  

Start of the Week

Most running backs would consider 1,000 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns a good season. After three weeks Marshawn Lynch is on pace for 1,162 rushing yards and 21 total touchdowns.

I spotlight Marshawn because how good he has been. He will be even better week. It is tempting to sell high and trade him. Wait a week because Buffalo is playing the lowly ST Louis Rams that seem incapable to stop any offense.

Add in that their offensive line is banged up again. Expect their offense to not do the job necessary to keep the defense rested. With this, Marshawn Lynch is our start of the week. 

QuarterBacks to start:

Kansas City is one of the top passing defenses fantasy wise. Through three games, they have given up 475 yards and two touchdowns. With those numbers, it would be tempting to say bench Jay Cutler. I believe Kansas City is not that good. So far the Chiefs has faced Tom Brady for a drive, Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell and Matt Ryan. Look for Jay to put up solid numbers despite the defense they play.   

It took a few weeks but Mike Martz has begun to put his stamp on the San Francisco 49ers. San Francisco also benefits from playing New Orleans this week. New Orleans is allowing an average of 267 yards per game passing. I also think Sullivan will be able to put up two touchdowns to get him over the 18-point benchmark. Start J.T. O' Sullivan this week.

Buffalo gets to play the lowly Rams this week. This bodes well for all Buffalo players. Unless you have an elite quarterback. This is especially good for Manning, Kitna, and Hasselbeck owners. Start Trent Edwards and take the points.

The battle of the Bays (Tampa, and Green) offers another start. Aaron Rodgers owners do not be discouraged at his performance last week versus Dallas. Tampa has been giving up 17.9 fantasy points a game. Look for Rodgers to eclipse that stat.

Running Backs to start:

Earlier this year we spotlighted that you should not start the Jaguars running backs. Jacksonville’s offensive line proved last week that they could handle weak rushing defenses. The good news is that Houston has a poor rushing defense right now too. I do not think Fred Taylor will get the points to meet our start them predictions but he could be a bye week option if you need one. Maurice Jones Drew is another story entirely. Put him in your lineup with confidence for at least a 12-point week.  

Weeks ago I tipped you off you needed to pick up Chris Perry. Though he has had tough matchups in weeks one and two, and a solid Giants' defense last week, he has rewarded owners with two touchdowns.  It is not great but versus the defenses he was playing against, it is good enough. Now Perry owners will reap the rewards of their patience. This week he plays Cleveland. Cleveland is giving up an average of two touchdowns a game and 142 yards on the ground. Get Perry in your lineup.

You do not need a news alert to know that over the past few years Denver’s defense is not an elite unit. This year is no different. Look for Denver to put up points rather quickly but despite that Kansas City need to get the ball in the hands of their best weapon.... Larry Johnson.  Denver has given up 613 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns so far this season. Start Johnson.

Wide Receivers to start:

I will be honest with you; I benched Braylon Edwards last week. He has been doing poorly and I did not like him versus Baltimore. I will also tell you I intend to start Braylon this week. I want to tell you be patient with Braylon. In the first three weeks of the season he has gone up against the three defenses that have been in the top 12 versus fantasy WR. 

Those three teams also have given up a combined one TD to all of their opponents WR.  Part of it is the Browns offense but not all of it. This week they play Cincinnati who is giving up an average of 17 points a game to opposing wide outs. That is not a lot but it is middle of the road in defense (16th overall) Cleveland does not have other solid options other than Kellen Winslow. I expect Braylon to perform better this week. Keep him in your lineup.

Again, we will target Denver’s defense. They are weak and have given up four touchdowns to wide outs this year. Look for Dwayne Bowe to grab another touchdown and yards to make him a start this week.
I know Oakland has a decent secondary. I also know DeAngelo Hall sometimes gambles and loses. Brandon Marshall should draw Nmadi Assumghhua and a safety to help shut him down. This should put Eddie Royal one on one with Hall look for Royal to rebound this week.

Picking on the Rams again, Lee Evans should score the points. If you need a bye week guy James Hardy has a solid chance to make it in the end zone this week although I do not expect him to score ten.

The Redskins offense is going through Santana Moss. He is a must start from here on out including this week.  

Tight Ends to start:

As I stated last week I do not like any of Oakland’s Wide outs this year but form time to time Zack Miller can be useable. This is one of those weeks. Give him a go against a San Diego who has proven vulnerable versus the tight end this year.

The Jets need to improve their defense versus tight ends as well. Start Arizona's Leonard Pope.

The Eagles have shut down wide outs pretty well. They have not done the same with tight ends giving up 277 yard so far this year. The saving grace is they have not given up a touchdown yet. Still I like Desmond Clark to do well versus Philadelphia.  

Kansas City is a defense versus Tight Ends that I believe is fools' gold. As they played teams that do not feature the tight end a lot. Feel confident as you start Denver's Tony Scheffler.

Defenses to start:

Matt Schaub is in disarray. Jacksonville is beginning to move the ball. I like the Jaguars' defense to do well this week.
Why? Check out our sit of the week below.  

Saint Louis is in disarray (11 sacks, 3 turnovers) again. Start Buffalo for the sack points.

Sit of the Week

A lot of people drafted Ben Roethlisberger to start for their team every week. They haven’t quite gotten what they were expecting this year. This is mostly due to his separated shoulder. One thing I noticed over the years is when Ben is healthy he is dead on accurate and a good play. When he is not healthy, he should be riding your bench.

Guess what. He is hurt, and for the first part of the season, he will not put up the numbers you were expecting. Hopefully, he should rebound. This week though Pittsburgh will host Baltimore. So far, Baltimore has give up one TD in two games.  They have also given up a paltry 224 yards passing. This is not a good situation if you can keep Big Ben on your bench.

QuarterBacks to Sit:

Have you seen the fathead commercial where Brian Urlacher is compared to a large bear in a jersey breathing fire and howling. It is an amusing commercial. I think it might be just the right way to describe Cortland Finnegan this season... He and the Titans secondary have a 7:1 INT to TD ratio! They also have been giving up 179 passing yards per game. Gus Frerotte will be moving the Vikings offense. Do not expect fantasy points in bunches this week. Keep him on your bench.

Carson Palmer finally found the end zone last week. That is good and the offense might be coming around. However, Cleveland is horrible versus the run. As mentioned above I ever Chris Perry to do well and get a bulk of the Bengals offense. Due to this, Palmer will be limited in his production this week if you can try someone else.

San Francisco’s passing defense has been silently good. While it is rare for Drew Brees to be benched, the absences of Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey from the lineup, (see below) and the matchup versus the 49ers secondary is such you should expect a lower statistical week from Drew. Look for Drew to barely beat the start criteria.  

Running Backs to sit:

Titans' rookie Chris Johnson has been a pleasant surprise this season. He has been a yardage hog. However, this week he will be playing against an elite rushing defense. He might be able to squirt past the Williams tackles but I have little faith that he will gain a lot of yards this week. Keep him on your bench Len Dale White might reach the end zone once and if you are hurting for byes it might be worth it. You will probably want to keep him on your bench though. Minnesota is giving up .67 rushing touchdowns per game.

I know you will be starting Steven Jackson this week. You drafted him with a top ten pick. Remove six backs because of byes and the pickings can be slim for who to replace him with. (I might suggest throwing a blind offer of Jackson for Lynch). Jackson is facing the Bills and they have a tough front seven. So far this season the Bills have given up just over 80 yards a game and one touchdown on the season. With a banged up offensive line Jackson will be hard pressed to put p good numbers.

I know Willis McGahee came back last week and he scored a touchdown, but it was versus the Browns' defense. Pittsburgh is much tougher (60 rushing Yds. per game one total TD to RB). McGahee is also fending off two other newcomers for carries. McGahee is not a good play this week keep him on your bench.

Brian Westbrook is day to day and had a negative MRI today still he goes up against Brian Urlacher and a Bears defense that has given up 100 all-purpose yards per game to running backs. I am thinking Westbrook will suit up if he can because he means so much to his team. I think he will have limited touches. Unless he practices fully by Friday, consider benching him.
       

Wide Receivers to sit:

Andre Johnson's owners need to expect lower numbers from him again this week. Houston travels to Jacksonville. Matt Schaub has looked uncomfortable in the pocket and should continue to do so this week. This means Johnson will have diminished numbers again. If you have another solid play look there.

Brandon Lloyd burst on the scene for two touchdowns. That is exciting but not repeatable this week. Chicago hosts the Eagles. Their secondary should be able to shut down Brandon who is not that good. Just do not play him this week.

We knew Brett Favre always has a WR emerge from nowhere to be productive. This year it is Chansi Stuckey. Arizona has allowed one TD to a WR. This makes Stuckey a risky pick, and unless you are in a touchdown-only league do not start him. If you are in a TD only league start him as a WR 2 only.

Finally if Big Ben has a down week so will his receivers. If you have options other than Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, start them this week. Also, Vikings' Sydney Rice says he should play after spraining his PCL in week two. Even if he does, he will be limited look for other options in week four.

Tight Ends to sit:

As mentioned above Jeremy Shockey will not play because of a sports hernia. Bench him. This is a "gimme" and will not count for the "How I did" section next week.

The Bills and the Buccaneers rank fifth and sixth respectively in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs.  With that information I suggest you bench Randy McMichael and Donald Lee.

How do you stop Jason Witten? I would say slip him some sleeping pills the night before a game because on the field he is unstoppable. Washington at Dallas provides an interesting match up, as Washington has been the best in stopping opposing team’s tight ends. In the end, I think Witten will win his match up and score more than 8 points. I have him here to inform you he will not perform like you have grown to expect of him.  

Defenses to sit:

Now that the Titans have Kerry Collins at QB, look for turnovers to be down and Collins to take a few more sacks. Granted Minnesota has Jared Allen but I think this is a week where you might want to bench Minnesota.

I like the running game of Atlanta to keep the turnovers low although you may never tell what you are going to get with a rookie QB. Ryan has shown flashes. I would bench Carolina.

Washington still has only one turnover on the season and Jason Campbell does not have a pick yet. Felix Jones is electric. But short of him returning another kick for a touchdown, Dallas will come up short. Bench Dallas.  
Each week we will keep track of how I did the previous week because I should be accountable to you the reader.

This week I went 17-33 which is good for a 51 percent correct-rate, although I was finally 2-for-2 in the start and sit of the week. The most surprising of my predictions to go wrong was Johnny Lee Higgins scoring 12 points to wipe out my blanket statement to sit all Raiders wide outs. I suppose the consolation is most leagues will have Higgins as a free agent.

Right next to that was that Kevin Smith does not have to worry about Rudi Johnson. Rudi was not that spectacular and one must wonder just what is going on in Detroit.

The most notable correct this week was my call that Seattle would run, run, and run.

Right next to that was Michael Pittman would be the running back in Denver to start. Pittman did tie with Selvin Young for fantasy points in week 3.

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How I did last week: Scoring system