Buying Low / Selling High or Winter in Boston

September 04, 2008
Author: Craig Maas

Rating: 9.0 out of 10
Total votes: 1

Arguably the most important part of your fantasy season is the draft. This happens first, before you REALLY know which teams and players are going to have remarkable seasons.
However, the champion of your league is still going to be determined by what he/she (or you!) do during the season. This article is all about recognizing the right time to trade a player from your roster or trade for a player on another team.
For example, you may think that any team with Tom Brady won its league last year. Think again. In my league one owner had the magical fortune to draft not just Tom Brady, but also Randy Moss AND Ladainian Tomlinson.
One would think this transferred to a guaranteed league championship, but the Boston winter had different ideas. Remember that the fantasy playoffs happen in the dead of winter, and a Patriots home game will equate to terrible throwing conditions for Brady. This specific owner was knocked off in the second week of our playoffs (Week 15), which featured a 140 yards, zero touchdown, one interception performance from Brady. Moss had five catches for 79 yards, which was a pedestrian effort compared to what his owner had become accustomed to.
I highly recommend trading away your Patriots around Week 11 or 12 for (hopefully) a King's ransom.
Similarly, trading for a player like Anquan Boldin during the middle of the season last year would have looked great after his Week 16 performance of 13 catches, 162 yards, and two touchdowns. Boldin didn't look good in the middle of the season with his foot injury, but could have been had for an incredibly low price. Also of great note here is that Boldin plays in Arizona, which isn't used to the same winters as the Patriots.
Players such as Moss and Brady in cold weather will more than likely disappoint you in at least one playoff game, which may be enough to cost you the championship. Don't forget to look at where games are played when looking for players with favorable Week 14, 15, and 16 schedules. Generally snow and rain is bad for the quarterbacks and receivers, while it benefits running backs (Laurence Maroney went for 104 yards and a TD in the aforementioned Patriots game).
I leave you with that. Go forth and conquer friends.

5 Week 1 Sleepers:
Justin Fargas vs. Denver: Remember the renaissance that Deuce McAllister experienced with Reggie Bush aboard? Look for a similar season from Fargas, who also happened to destroy the Broncos last year.

Calvin Johnson vs. Atlanta: Look for this to be the year that the beast is awakened. Johnson scored in his first game last year, and this year he should break out big time against an out-manned Falcons secondary.

Kenny Watson vs. Baltimore: Chris Perry may have been deemed the starter by Marvin Lewis, but look for Watson to split carries with Perry at the very least. Perry is still very much an unproven NFL quantity while Watson has already proved he belongs.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Minnesota: I like Rodgers a lot and against a stingy Vikings run defense, look for the Packers to air it out frequently. Rodgers has been given a perfect opportunity to succeed (minus walking in He Who Must Not Be Named's shadow) and I suspect he'll grab it.

Josh Morgan vs. Arizona: I like this kid a lot. He looks like the next Marques Colston or Anquan Boldin. He may not do it this week (in fact I wouldn't start him) but pick him up now and beat everyone to the punch before your whole league tries to grab him off waivers in a few weeks.

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