Fantasy Dr X: Strike Zone

The "Lima" Plan!

This past year, if you've listened to Lenny Melnick and I discuss draft strategies on our weekly talk show, Talking Baseball Live, you know that we encourage Fantasy Owners to take hitters in the first several rounds of your draft.  This strategy is not just for traditional or snake drafts, but also includes your auction draft formats.  We've each found success utilizing this strategy, along with a mix of others, to help propel us to League Championships.

Over my 18 years of playing Fantasy Baseball, I've learned many different strategies that I've mixed and matched to fit  my own style.  I've taken bits and pieces of advice from experts like Ron Shandler and my partner on the Radio Show, Lenny Melnick, and utilized it to take advantage of the draft board.  Don't be ashamed to do the same.  If the information is out there, take it an run with it.  Many of these guys, including myself, will do the leg work for you, but it's up to you take the information and use it during your draft(s).

One of the better strategies I've used over the past several years was invented by Ron Shandler from baseballhq.com and rotohq.com.  Shandler's LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) Plan was originally used for traditional leagues that utilize the 4×4 leagues, but I've been able to successfully use this strategy in my 5×5 league as well.

The story behind the name comes from former Houston Astros pitcher Jose Lima, who in 1998 came out of no where to put up spectacular numbers. Lima who exemplified the strategy, now has Shandlers LIMA Plan to go along with his famous line, "Lima Time".

Now, lets take a look at this plan and how it works.  This plan is best used in auction drafts, but can be used in traditional leagues as well, if used carefully. We'll break it down from an auction standpoint first.

Most auction drafts allocate $260 for your draft, that's a pretty standard amount that we'll use for this case.  From that $260, you would set aside $60 to use towards selecting pitchers.  I'll take it one step further and break down the $60 by splitting it in half, $30 for starting pitchers and the other $30 for closers/relief pitchers.

NOTE: For 5×5 leagues you may want to bump the $60 to $75-$80 because strikeouts are a category that you'll want to compete in as well.  You'll need to make the proper adjustments to your dollar figure strategy depending on your league rules.

Now that we've split up our money, it's time to break down the statistics for those pitchers that meet Shandler's criteria. In order to do that we take a look at three stats that can help determine which pitchers fit the LIMA Plan:

• K/BB ratio of 2.0 or better : K/BB Ratio = K/BB
• HR/9 of 1.0 or less : (HR/IP) *9
• K/9 ratio of 6.0 or better : K/9 Ratio = (K/IP) * 9 (used mainly in 4×4 leagues — 5×5 may need to push to 7 in order to compete in the K's category)

But, why should you do the work if I've already done the math for you?  Here is a PDF break out by starting pitcher and relief pitcher that fit the above formula's.

LIMA PLAN PITCHERS (PDF)

So you have the list in your hands now, what do you do with it?  First things first, know your league rules.  You want to know what the minimum number of inning pitched you need to qualify in the pitching category.  When drafting, draft to reach the minimum, and then move on.  The best way to determine how to reach you league minimum in innings is by averaging out the LIMA Plan starting pitchers innings from a year ago, that number is 157 IP for starter and 55 IP for relief pitchers.

Great, so now you know your pitching strategy.  Lets move onto the offense. 

With $200 to spend on offense, you should be able to finish near the top of all your offensive statistics.  When drafting offensive players, DO NOT SPEND MORE THEN $30 ON ANY ONE PLAYER. If you happen to splurge a little, you'll have to adjust your draft in order to compensate for going over $30. Make sure you spend all your money allocated towards the offense as this will only help your chances of putting together the best draft.

So you've finished your draft, and are looking over your team.  When you look at your team you should determine whether or not you'll be at the top of the offensive categories and at a minimum the upper 1/3 of ERA, WHIP and Saves.  If you can assume you are, then congrats you had a great draft. If not, well I hope you're a trade genius cause it's going to take a lot of maneuvering to get yourself close.

*** 

Lets take a look now at the traditional draft and how you might be able to utilize the LIMA Plan.  Over the past 5 years, I've made a habit of using a version of my own LIMA Plan when it comes to traditional drafts.  In the first 12 rounds I make sure to select at least 10 hitters and 2 pitchers, no pitchers before the 5th round. When I select my 2 pitchers, I like to make sure one of those pitchers is an ace, usually with high strikeout totals.  The other pitcher is a stud closer, which I can usually get in rounds 7 or 8.  

After the 12th round, the LIMA Plan starts to come into effect.  In the middle of the teen-rounds I like to select the LIMA pitchers I feel will have the best chance to keep my WHIP and ERA low, usually those pitchers that pitch in favorable ballparks (we'll look at those in early January).  Then as the draft starts to wind down, I look at those relievers that have a chance to snag me a few saves, all the while keeping my ERA and WHIP down.

Here, like in the auction draft, because you've gone the way of hitters, you can probably look to trade some of your bats later in the season in order to bolster your pitching staff down the stretch run.  By this time you goal is that you have such a big lead in the offensive categories, that it won't hurt you to trade a bat or two for some pitching.

Utilizing this style of draft has it's ups and downs, but it's been very successful for me in many leagues and should help you out as well.

If you get stuck in a draft where the trend seems to be that many of your competitors are also using the LIMA Plan (which can happen, I've been in a draft where over half were using it), you'll have to mix it up a little in order to take advantage of your knowledge now of how this draft style works. 

Good Luck! (Find this article also at Fantasy Maniaxs)

LIMA PLAN PITCHERS (PDF)